Intelligence | Signal Notes

Signal Notes

Short, insight-dense intelligence memos tracking where government actions collide with PE portfolio dynamics — and what it means before the market prices it.

Published Notes — 2025–2026
European Enforcement
The CMA Acquisition Premium
The CMA Has Started Repricing PE Acquisition Theses | April 2026
April 2026
Healthcare PE | Reimbursement Reform
The Upcoding Reckoning
The $200 number that changes everything for PE healthcare | March 2026
March 2026
Housing | PE Portfolio Risk
The 350-Home Line
The Reconciliation Gap, The Build-to-Rent Trap & The Mortgage Volume Bridge | March 2026
March 2026
Defense Policy | Cross-Sector PE Exposure
The Defense Dividend
The 1.5% Window | March 2026
March 2026
Housing & Credit Scoring | Regulatory Intervention
The Pricing War Nobody Modeled
How FHFA Broke the Credit Scoring Monopoly — and What the Fallout Means for Mortgage-Exposed Portfolios | March 2026
March 2026
Healthcare PE | Regulatory Enforcement
The Green Light Has a Yellow Sign
FTC Healthcare Task Force | March 2026
March 2026
Trade Policy | PE Portfolio Risk
The Tariff Reset
The Section 301 Reroute, The Forced Labor Trap & The Framework Illusion | March 2026
March 2026
Housing & Credit | FHFA Intervention
The Scorecard Switch
How FHFA Broke the FICO Monopoly — and What the Political Archaeology Reveals | February 2026
February 2026
Private Equity | Regulatory Exit Friction
The Holding Tax
How Synchronized Tightening Made the Hold Period the New Risk Variable | February 2026
February 2026
European PE | Antitrust Enforcement
The Roll-Up Reckoning
How Three Enforcement Channels Closed the Below-Threshold Acquisition Window | February 2026
February 2026
Enterprise Software | AI-Driven Repricing
The Seat Count Problem
How Agentic AI Compresses SaaS Unit Economics — and What It Means for PE Software Portfolios | February 2026
February 2026
Healthcare PE | Three-Front Margin War
The Healthcare Squeeze
The Three-Front Margin War Converging on PE Healthcare Portfolios | February 2026
February 2026
Healthcare | Digital Health Policy
The Great Medicare Digitization Trade
Five Policy Pillars and the Investment Opportunity They Create | February 2026
February 2026
Consumer Finance | Structural Break
Plastic Populism
Two Bills, Two Theories, One Structural Break in Consumer Credit | January 2026
January 2026
Trade & Geopolitics | PE Exposure
The Middle Power Trade
The EU-India FTA, The Trump-Modi Parallel, and the Industrial Winners | February 2026
February 2026